What happened to the quail egg business that was so
thriving? I mean, is it the fault of the government that an egg that was
retailing for Kshs 150 when James, an upcoming investor was investing in the
business now goes for Kshs 20? I don’t think so. Whose fault is it then? Well, I
won’t want to point a finger. That is why I will put the blame on the market. The
market determines the price of an item depending on its availability relative
to those who want it. The rapid change in the price was a result of many peoples’
interpretation of a piece of information in the same way.
All over a sudden, someone asserted that a quail egg
contained more proteins compared to the normal eggs from chicken we were used
to. By that evening, everyone was looking for these golden eggs to add more proteins.
This drove the price even higher. Investors on the other hand interpreted the
information to mean that more people will want to consume these eggs. With this
reasoning, James among other investors rushed to invest in this seemingly profitable
venture. After a while, the while taken to rare quails so they can produce
eggs, more of the produce was coming to the market while consumption was
constant if not declining. As more and more eggs came to the market, the price
declined and today these eggs are 20 bob each.
One disadvantage of such an investment is that people invest
at a very high cost and sell at a very low cost. The profitability of any
seemingly profitable investment depends on how people will interpret the
information of scarcity, surplus or need in the market. Before putting your
money in it, it is advisable to ask yourself this question; what is it that may
prevent anyone else from investing in it as well? This question becomes more fundamental when
the information on scarcity or need is with the public. Notice that, many
ventures remain profitable by investors failing to disclose their
profitability. When the press spills the beans, it pays to consider how
investors will position themselves and secure a safer position for your money.
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