When the rain season is just around the corner, farmers are
the first to sense it. Or at least, are supposed to be first to sense it. That is why many have developed their own
indicators; my father used the appearance of the moon and the flight of some
group of birds to a certain direction. People have developed their own check
points, not to mean that the scientific rain forecast is obsolete, but it is so
general in nature such that farmers feel safer to rely on means within their
surrounding which are more specific to them.
The tendency to plant just when
the rain season is about is in some sense similar to positional investment. Positional investment, however, relies more
on guidance by scientific know-how of how the system operates than on ones
intuition. Unlike the traditional means I have described regarding the farmer
which are based on belief and on myths, positional investing, and this on a
strict sense, relies on a causation process that helps us predict the future
with more certainty under different states of nature.
For example, most of us know the basic laws of demand and
supply not by attending any economic classes or calculus on elasticity of the
two forces but by logic. Yes, everyone knows that if we produce more grapes
than people need them, we will certainly need to lower their price or their
rotting force us to so that they can be absorbed from us. Similarly, if we need
so much something that is not readily available we will definitely need to
offer more for it. Positional investment, and this is just one of the many
guides, may use these simple laws to make predictions based on the information
we already have.
of importance is to know the fundamental
role information plays in the accuracy of any ones expectations about the
future following this tool of prediction. The interpretation of the information is
the key to an accurate prediction. However, the information must be correct in
the first place. But note that, even false information can be helpful but to
only those who perceive its falsity in time. Since the information of today may and often
does shed some light on tomorrow, my next article will give a practical
application of how to use this reasoning to take advantage of the market and
position you accordingly. In short, I will give a practical application of this
reasoning in the Kenyan fresh vegetables produce industry, and in this case
give an example of tomatoes. Meanwhile, you can think about the industry and
how its prices move.
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